Maersk Global Market Update – Autumn 2025

1 十月 2025

Antonia Maersk vessel arriving to Aarhus, Denmark

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In the Autumn edition of the Maersk Global Market Update, we explore China’s stronger global container exports into Latin America, Africa, and Europe, the reality for inventory levels and consumer demand in the US, and the latest figures surrounding global tariffs among Maersk customers.

Chinese exports driving global container trade growth

Back in July, we established that China’s share of global container trade has continued to grow, with exports remaining strong despite concerns over mounting protectionism. Total market data shows that Chinese exports to all regions outside North America are still trending upwards, contributing to China’s share of total global exports increasing to 37% and demonstrating a successful redirection of exports to regions where demand remains robust.

At the same time, we are seeing clear signs of sourcing diversification in the market. There are many cases of global retailers and manufacturers shifting parts of their production from China to Southeast Asia – particularly Vietnam, Cambodia, and the Philippines – to mitigate tariff exposure and geopolitical risk. It is still too early to determine how widespread this trend will become, but we will continue to monitor developments closely.

China’s exports to Latin America have been on the rise in recent years, and the momentum has continued in 2025. Demand from China increased by 17% in Q2 2025 compared to the same period last year, primarily driven by technology and machinery.

Since 2019, China has increased its market share of total exports to Latin America from 27% to 38% in the first half of 2025. Main economies such as Mexico and Brazil are still expanding, and Mexico’s economic growth in particular has outperformed expectations in the first half of the year amid more resilient manufacturing and higher exports to the US than anticipated.

Looking at Africa, global market data shows that China has increased its market share of total container volumes to the continent to approximately 39% in 2025 – up from 32% in 2019. Technology and Mining & Metals segments have seen the biggest growth in the past 12 months, along with Chemicals and Automotive which remain the biggest imports to Africa from Far East Asia.

So far, Europe has weathered the tariff uncertainty relatively well. However, despite a tight labour market, consumers remain cautious in their spending, which is reflected in a high savings rate. But if we look at where Europeans are buying their products from, imports are on the rise and exports from China made up 40% of total container imports in the first half of 2025, compared to 35% in 2019.

US inventory levels matching demand

In the first half of the year when the US announced its tariff package, the headlines were that businesses were advancing / front-loading cargo into the country in an attempt to bypass additional charges. However, while this was observed in some industries – particularly with manufacturers rather than retailers – data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis suggests that inventory levels remained roughly aligned with demand. Data on inventory-to-sales ratio also suggests that businesses are holding leaner inventories than expected amid the front-loading narrative.

Part of this could be due to a stronger-than-expected demand for goods from US consumers. Demand was forecasted to fall during the summer months off the back of widespread uncertainty, but the latest figures show that it has remained strong – growing on average 4.2% year-on-year in the months of July and August (US Bureau of Economic Analysis).

Looking at total market volumes in Q2, we have seen a 15% drop year-on-year on the China to North America corridor. At the same time, however, container volumes from Southeast Asia to North America were up 17% from January through July, and volumes from Europe increased 4% in the same period. Still, the prevailing business sentiment analysis suggests a rather subdued holiday season.

While some aspects have evolved, the broader picture is unchanged. Our customers are understandably being cautious. The review frequency of costs and risks is unusually high, as customers explore sourcing and supply chain optimisation during this period of somewhat blurred visibility. The need for a high degree of flexibility remains the key for our partners in their efforts to maintain a competitive edge despite the heightened volatility.

Karsten Kildahl

Chief Commercial Officer at Maersk

Tangible tariffs

In July, the US and the European Union (EU) reached a framework agreement in which the US introduced a 15% import tariff on most EU goods. The US and China extended negotiations beyond their August deadline and paused the planned introduction of a 145% import tariff rate on goods from China and similar reciprocal tariffs on US goods. Negotiations on a framework agreement will continue and the next deadline for a deal is currently 10th November. Additionally, the US has introduced a 50% tariff on imported goods from India.

In light of this development, companies importing goods into the US have seen another uptick in their tariff payments. On average, companies are currently paying an effective tariff rate of approximately 25% (per 30th September) relative to container load on all US imports, according to Maersk’s container-weighted effective average tariff rate metric.

One year ago, that average was 5% - a significant extra cost in the space of only 12 months. The situation is still volatile, although many businesses are now seeing that their cost base has reached a higher and more consistent level.

For a full overview of the current tariff situation for your cargo, please contact the Maersk Global Trade and Customs Consulting team.

In other news…

IMO meeting: In October, member states of the IMO will meet up in London where they are expected to adopt the IMO Net Zero Framework, which was approved in April. Adopting this framework would be a turning point for decarbonisation of global shipping and provide legal certainty for the industry. In the latest episode of our All the Way to Zero specials, we investigate how the Net Zero Framework could redefine shipping. Check it out here.

USTR: Effective 14th October, the US will phase in new service fees for maritime transport services of Chinese-owned and Chinese-built vessels calling US ports, introduced gradually over a three-year period. Maersk does not plan to apply any surcharges in connection with this legislation and does not anticipate changes to our US port rotations or existing service plans.